CONCORD, N.C. - As the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Martinsville Speedway this weekend for the Round of 8 finale, three Hendrick Motorsports wheelmen find themselves in precarious positions in terms of the pursuit of a championship.
Here are the facts: Two of the four spots in the Championship 4 have been taken and two remain up for grabs among six drivers on Sunday at the paperclip. Among those six eligible are Kyle Larson, William Byron and Chase Elliott.
As many as two of them could still punch tickets to Phoenix and on the flipside, it's within the realm of mathematical possibility that all three could be left on the outside looking in.
But there's plenty of statistics and history that point to that latter scenario being unlikely. And though each of the three enter this weekend in different situations and with varying degrees of success at the 0.526-mile oblong bullring, there are cases to be made that any of the three could leave southern Virginia happy on Sunday evening.
So, let's take a look at what each driver is facing and build the case for Sunday being a day of triumph and success:
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Kyle Larson
- Martinsville starts: 21
- Martinsville wins: 1 (April 2023)
- Martinsville top fives: 7
- Martinsville top 10s: 9
- Career laps led at Martinsville: 367
- Average finish at Martinsville: 15.5
- Points position: 4th
- Points margin: 36 above the cutline
The case: Of the three, Larson is certainly in the best position with the most options entering Sunday.
There are several paths available for the driver of the No. 5 HendrickCars.com Chevrolet. Should Elliott, Byron, Joey Logano or Ryan Blaney not win on Sunday, Larson would need only to stay where he is in points to earn entry into the Championship 4.
Even if one of those four drivers visit victory lane on Sunday, Larson is just a single point below Christopher Bell in third place in the standings with Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe already locked in via Round-of-8 wins. That means, if Larson can outpoint Bell by a single tally, he'd lock into the Championship 4 regardless of what else happens (Larson owns the tiebreaker on Bell via second-place finish at Las Vegas Motor Speedway).
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So, while a second victory at Martinsville would be nice, for this race, Larson's attention is primarily on one other competitor.
"I'd say we really need to outpoint [Christopher] Bell. It's going to be interesting. Obviously, we’ll be focused on the race, but for us, one guy matters more than the rest," Larson said. "It’s similar for them. They’ll be watching what we're doing throughout the day, too. Hopefully, we'll have a strong car, qualify well, grab stage points, and do everything we can to gain as many points as possible."
And, like Elliott, Byron and Hendrick Motorsports teammate Alex Bowman, Larson has won at Martinsville before and certainly, taking the checkered flag on Sunday would take a lot of drama out of points scenarios for the 5 team.
"Martinsville has been a good track for us in the past, so if we can go there, stay strong, and do what it takes, we can make the final four and compete for a championship," Larson said.
William Byron
- Martinsville starts: 15
- Martinsville wins: 2
- Martinsville top fives: 5
- Martinsville top 10s: 8
- Career laps led at Martinsville: 360
- Average finish at Martinsville: 13.5
- Points position: 5th
- Points margin: 36 below the cutline
The case: With all three, there's solace to be taken in the fact that all have been there and done that before, both in terms of winning at Martinsville and in terms of staving off elimination.
For Byron, it's been two straight fall Martinsville races of doing just that. Last year, it came in a sixth-place finish that was just good enough to edge Bell. In 2023, it was surviving a long race in an often-ill-handling race car that left the driver of the No. 24 lying on the ground in exhaustion afterwards.
Then, there's Byron's penchant for winning big races, including back-to-back DAYTONA 500s as well as a victory at Martinsville in the 2024 spring race, a day in which Hendrick Motorsports celebrated its 40th anniversary with each car adorned with a special, ruby-red paint scheme.
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Most likely, another massive victory will be the requirement. Mathematically, Byron is still alive on points but would need catastrophic days from Bell and Larson combined with a big day of his own to overcome the gap. It's certainly a frustrating position with Byron having won the regular season championship and having been running inside the top five in the closing laps of both Round of 8 races thus far (Las Vegas and Talladega Superspeedway) only to be caught up in incidents not of his own doing.
And yet, none of that matters now. Byron has six top seven finishes in his last nine starts at Martinsville including two wins. The focus, despite the circumstances presented, lies solely on a third.
"It’s not ideal, but we know what we have to do this weekend. The only option is to win," Byron said. "The last two weeks, not having a better finish for how well we were running is what hurts.
"We have to forget that and move on. All focus is on Martinsville and how we can run up front all day. The fall there hasn’t been the strongest for us, but I do think we’ve made a lot of strides on that package."
Chase Elliott
- Martinsville starts: 20
- Martinsville wins: 1
- Martinsville top fives: 8
- Martinsville top 10s: 13
- Career laps led at Martinsville: 1,275
- Average finish at Martinsville: 11.7
- Points position: 8th
- Points margin: 62 below the cutline
The case: At the very least, the No. 9 team can take some comfort in simplicity. A win is all that will do.
And there's familiarity in the fire. After all, it's the exact same spot Elliott and the squad were in a year ago as they entered Martinsville Speedway 65 points down before finishing second, coming up just one spot short of the victory needed.
This year, the task is simple: Find one more position.
The good news is that it would be a victory Elliott has been knocking on the door of for quite some time. Over his last three starts at Martinsville, including last fall's near miss, he's finished no worse than fourth, leading 235 combined laps along the way.
His career numbers at Martinsville are also among the best in the sport. Elliott's 1,275 career laps led are third among active drivers (721 more than any other driver with 20 or fewer starts) and his average finish of 11.7 is fourth.
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And yet, one race in that time stands out above the rest. Elliott was 42 points down entering Martinsville in 2020. He led 236 laps and reached victory lane in dominant fashion, clinching a trip to Phoenix where he would go on to claim a NASCAR Cup Series title.
All he has to do, is do it again. And for his part, Elliott said he's confident he has the tools to do just that.
"Everyone here (in the Cup Series) is pretty good at what they do," Elliott said. "I feel like Hendrick Motorsports does a great job of just really fine tuning all the details that it takes to be successful at every part of the shop. The boss (Rick Hendrick) gives us the resources that we ask for and that we need to go and be successful. Then he just trusts us to go get the job done from there. So, I’m grateful to have that at my disposal to help me do my job to the best of my ability."